CoreLogic Home Price Index Rises in May

CoreLogic released its Home Price Index (HPI) report today for May, with the following positive news about the U.S. real estate market:

"Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 2.0 percent in May 2012 compared to May 2011 (see red line in chart above). On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, also increased by 1.8 percent in May 2012 compared to April 2012. The May 2012 figures mark the third consecutive increase in home prices nationwide on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 2.7 percent in May 2012 compared to May 2011, see blue line in chart. [MP: This is the largest annual increase since late 2006.] On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 2.3 percent in May 2012 compared to April 2012, the fourth month-over-month increase in a row. 

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that house prices, including distressed sales, will rise by at least another 1.4 percent from May 2012 to June 2012. Excluding distressed sales, house prices are also poised to rise by 2.0 percent during that same time period. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a new and exclusive metric that was introduced within the April 2012 HPI report. It provides the most current indication of trends in home prices, and is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes in the most recent month.

“The recent upward trend in U.S. home prices is an encouraging signal that we may be seeing a bottoming of the housing down cycle,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic. “Tighter inventory is contributing to broad, but modest, price gains nationwide and more significant gains in the harder-hit markets, like Phoenix.”

“Home price appreciation in the lower-priced segment of the market is rebounding more quickly than in the upper end,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Home prices below 75 percent of the national median increased 5.7 percent from a year ago, compared to only a 1.8 percent increase for prices 125 percent or more of the median.”

MP: The home price increases reported today by CoreLogic for May and the last several months are consistent with the gains in the FHFA House Price Index (HPI), featured last Thursday on CD.  The FHFA's HPI increased by 3% in May from a year earlier, which was the third straight monthly increase, and the largest year-over-year gain since November 2006.  Slowly but surely, the U.S. housing market is making a comeback, with more evidence today of rising home prices in May according to CoreLogic's HPI.  

Busy Intersection: No Traffic Lights v. Traffic Lights

The video above shows the same intersection in Auckland, New Zealand at the same time of day.  The video on the left shows the traffic moving through the intersection without traffic signals following a power outage, and the video on the right show traffic the next day after power was restored and the traffic lights were working again. 

HT: Jake W.

Related quote from Dylan Brice: "Developments in traffic engineering show that measures aimed at making roads safer (such as road signs, traffic lights) actually make roads less safe. They signal to drivers that it’s OK not to think through the risks of their behavior."

Online Job Demand Rises in June; Both Total Ads and New Ads Reach New Monthly Record Highs

From today's Conference Board report on online labor demand:

"Online advertised vacancies rose 232,000 in June to 4,947,100, according to the Conference Board's Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index. Following little growth in the first two months of the second quarter, June closed out the quarter with a strong gain. The Supply/Demand rate stands at 2.7 unemployed for every vacancy.

“Online labor demand in the first half of 2012 increased by an average of 104,000 per month, but about one-third of both the States and the 100 largest metro areas are still below their pre-recession highs for labor demand,” said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board. “As of June, almost half of the occupational groups have Supply/Demand rates at or below 2.0. However, most of these are in the professional categories, such as business and finance, healthcare professionals, and management. Although we’ve seen improvement, other categories like construction, building and grounds maintenance, and personal care are still struggling with high Supply/Demand rates.

Other highlights include:

1. All 20 of the largest metro areas posted gains in labor demand in June.

2. Eight of the 20 largest metro areas have supply/demand rates below 2, indicating that there are fewer than two unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy.

MP: Both total online job vacancies (4.94 million) and new ads (3.16 million) are now well above their pre-recession levels (see chart above) and both set new monthly record highs in June.  June's 232,000 monthly increase in online vacancies follows a 246,000 increase in March, bringing the total increase over the last four months to 524,000, the largest four-month increase in online advertised jobs since early 2007.

The Supply/Demand ratio has been below 3.0 for the last four months in a row for the first time since the fall of 2008, more than three years ago. Today's Conference Board report provides more evidence that the labor market is gradually recovering, and the sharp increase in online job vacancies over the last four months forecasts increased hiring activity in the coming months.

ISM Reports Slowdown in Manufacturing

Today's ISM report suggests that economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted slightly in June, as the overall ISM manufacturing index (PMI) fell below 50 for the first time since July 2009 (see chart above).  However, the direction of both the "manufacturing production" and the "manufacturing employment" sub-indexes are still considered to be "growing" according to the ISM, although both are now listed as "slowing" for the "rate of change."  Based on today's report, growth in the overall economy (GDP) could be slowing to 2.4% this year based on May's PMI, but could be as high as 3.5% based on the PMI during the first half of the year. Here are some highlights:

"Manufacturing contracted in June as the PMI registered 49.7 percent, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points when compared to May's reading of 53.5 percent (see chart above). A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.6 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the June PMI indicates growth for the 37th consecutive month in the overall economy, but indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time since July 2009, when the PMI registered 49.2 percent.

ISM Chair Bradley Holcomb said, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through June (53 percent) corresponds to a 3.5 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for June (49.7 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.4 percent increase in real GDP annually."

Glenn Reynolds on the History and State of the Blogosphere, the Higher Education Bubble, etc.

Watch Ed Driscoll's Silicon Graffiti video interview with Glenn Reynolds on the history and state of the blogosphere, and the higher education bubble (featuring a "scary-ass" CD chart).

Markets in Everything: Cellphone Escape Services

Trying to make an early exit from your 2-year cell phone contract without paying the $150-200 early termination fee?  Now there are online cellular exchange websites that match cellular subscribers, a seller who wants to get out of a contract early and a buyer who is willing to take over the contract.  Cell phone service providers apparently allow a contract to be transferred without charging an early cancellation fee, and these services facilitate those transfers by matching buyers and sellers online.  

Here are two examples of websites offering cellphone exchange services:

1. Celltrade -  "We have developed the world's first online community that gets dissatisfied cell phone customers out of their service contract. Celltradeusa.com provides this service through an incentive based system that connects millions of cellular customers nationwide that want to Get Out with those that want to Get In."  

Registration is free, and once the "Get Out" seller finds a "Get In" buyer, there is a $19.99 fee for the seller. 

2.  TradeMyCellular is similar to Celltrade: "TradeMyCellular provides service for cellular contract holders who want to get out of their contract early without paying extra charges by listing their plan and cellular phone information on TradeMyCellular.com. Also TradeMyCellular.com provides service to those who seek for taking over a short term contract without paying activation fees and also taking advantage of incentives provided by contract holders."

Spontaneous Order, Sometimes It Just Happens

No Traffic Lights? No Problem

  
Last Friday, a severe thunderstorm knocked out power for large sections of the Virginia, D.C., and Maryland area; including the traffic lights in one of the more poorly designed intersections in the Arlington/Falls Church section of VA.  But instead of chaos, the video above shows what happened ...